Apple is one of my favorite companies. I lust over Apple products which I don't own. I love the Apple products which I do own.

Not that I'm an Apple fanatic by any means. My lust/love for Apple's products is tempered by the availability of less expensive alternatives. I'm just too, uh, practical to spend that much of a premium for a PC or a laptop. I have trouble justifying the cool factor. That is, except with the iPod. I'm on my 4th iPod. I love the iPod.

But this isn't a post about iPods. It's about Apple, the company. It's about their stock. Do you think it's time to buy Apple stock?

To save you the suspense I'll give you my answer, my opinion, right now. I think you'll lose money buying Apple right now.

Time for the fools to rush in? Stories like this crack me up. The logic is almost too compelling. Three big firms recommend buying Apple on their current weakness. Hey, three's a crowd. Everyone's doing it so that makes it right. Right? I don't think that way.

Apple's weakness of late results from problems getting their iPhone to market. Now they're delaying the next revision of their operating system, diverting resources from its development and refocusing them on the iPhone.

SAN JOSE, Calif. - Apple Inc. said it won't be shipping its next-generation operating system in June as planned, saying it had to divert resources from the project so that it could launch its highly anticipated iPhone on time.

Right down to it
I fear for Apple. When it gets right down to it, I'm afraid Apple has started to look a lot like lots of other consumer products companies out there. Their successful products put them where they are because they were simple and elegant. Now we're hearing the same mundane tales about the complexity of bringing high-tech products to market in a competitive environment and resource allocation. I'm fearful that Apple's realizing this iPhone, as much as they want it to be simple and elegant and successful, will turn out to be complex and elegant and a lukewarm success.

The iPhone is a complex product selling into a hyper-competitive market with margins that, while decent, don't match those of the iPod space. A failure here - and make no mistake, a lukewarm success equals failure - will hurt.

Apple can only fight so many battles at once. Yesterday's announcement was an admission that supply lines are stretched. The iPhone battle is against seasoned competitors on their own turf.

Buy Apple? No thanks. The future's too scary for me right now. Possibly in a few months when these fears are confirmed and the future looks particularly bleak.