Four conversations so far today. The phone rings, chatter in email, instant messages...

We're off the bottom. The market's turning around. Time to buy. Everyone checking with everyone else to see if we're all thinking the same way. We're not.

Too good to be true? It is. This thing will turn around when nobody's interested in picking up the phone to chat about a possible market bottom. When nobody cares, it's time to invest again. Until then it's all a feint.

I hope I can look back on this post in 6 months' time and laugh at how wrong I was. Time will tell.