I mentioned this back in October, but it bears repeating: Don't buy mutual funds right now.

This month will see a huge outpouring of dividends and capital gains from mutual funds in the form of year-end distributions. Portfolio managers have spent the last month sprucing up their portfolios (your portfolios), aligning them with those hottest of the hot sectors so you'll like what you see they've invested in come annual report time. They've also just about run through all their losses from the dot com bust.

If you're invested in big retail stocks this season I think you're going to be rewarded handsomely come next quarter's reporting period. That is if my weekend experience is any indicator.

I experienced a madhouse of buying in nearly every major retail outlet I visited. From electronics stores like Best Buy and Circuit City, to Target, always my favorite for finding just the right something to be returned or exchanged after the holidays.

The interesting thing was, almost everyone I talked to had the same frustration with their shopping. They were having problems finding the things whey wanted, and so were having to settle for an alternative. I got to wondering whether these big retailers might be implementing a strategy of limiting supply of the hottest items and up selling customers to alternatives as a way to drive profits.

The news out this morning is that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke attended a dinner last evening and hinted in a prepared address that the Fed would drop rates again at their December 11th meeting. He cited higher food and gas prices, tight credit and a poorly performing stock market as "head winds" facing consumers and the economy.

I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some head winds for the consumer in the months ahead

Why do I feel so uneasy about yesterday's rally in the markets? I enjoyed it tremendously. I'm sure you did too. All the same, I can't help but get the feeling it's like the bull's last meal before being led out to slaughter.

I hope I'm wrong about this, but the prospects of recession seem too good. I'm concerned the Fed's interest rate cutting may have started a little too late. I'm concerned they didn't fully understand how far ranging the housing market's problems would become.

It looks like we're starting to wake up to the insane thinking that somehow corn is the answer to our energy problems. According to an article in today's WSJ profits on ethanol are down, as are stocks in companies that rushed in to try to make a buck on the idea.

See, the problem with ethanol is the cost to grow and convert the corn needed to produce it is too high. Politicians out to get the vote didn't exactly lie to us when they said ethanol would reduce our reliance on foreign oil - it did. They just didn't bother to tell us, or they didn't realize, it would drive up the cost of everything else that depends on that corn we're diverting to fuel.

It's not that I think reducing our dependence on foreign oil is a bad thing. I'd just rather do something about it on a full stomach.

The lead story on the 11 o'clock news last night was punctuated by shots of shoppers whose tents were lined up around the corner of the shopping center. Prospective bargain hunters wearing multiple layers of winter clothing spoke to the camera about the great deals they hoped to get when the store opened at 4am.

Watching this spectacle, it occurred to me the story should have been carried in the sports section of the broadcast. Each shopper interviewed sounded a lot like your average NASCAR, NFL or MLB superstar. Each talked about how he or she hoped the personal sacrifice would pay off, how it was all worth it. Many spoke about the "game" itself. The game, you see, was where it's at. They came to play the game.

Are you buying into this market?

With the US economy looking weak and looking to get weaker, the buying opportunities are here and now. They probably won't last long. My money says we'll bottom out in the coming weeks as all the bad news is factored in and buy programs kick in to start hedging for the eventual upturn.

It's just a question of when. Remember, it's the unknowns that determine where the market will go. What's known is already priced in.

Personally, I'll be doing a little buying myself. I have some gains and losses to reconcile. And a couple of classes of equities could use a little more balancing. By combining the two activities I can both prepare myself for better risk adjusted returns and minimize my tax bite for 2007.

To all in the US: Happy Thanksgiving.

Did you see this NYT article?

The Federal Communications Commission is preparing to impose significant new regulations to open the cable television market to independent programmers and rival video services after determining that cable companies have become too dominant in the industry, senior commission officials said.

Think it will ever happen? I doubt it. At least not in the near term.

The Fed's little quarter point drop in the overnight funds rate seems to only have worsened market volatility. Bull or bear, up or down. We can't decide whether the subprime problems are tanking the economy and we're headed for recession - which means rates should be dropped in order to stimulate growth - or whether the Dollar is too cheap and inflation is around the corner, which means the Fed ought to tighten up on cash by raising rates.

With all this worry and debate you'd think the market might do more sitting on its hands. That's not the case. Big money places its bets with your money market, mutual fund, pension and 401(k) savings and sets loose the latest releases of their trading programs in the hopes of making a few bucks.

A friend of mine is what you'd most certainly call a serial entrepreneur. He's created lots of businesses - talk

His latest thing is creating franchises. I'm not talking about Taco Bells or McDonald's franchises. People who run franchise businesses like these are in a lot of ways not much different from employees of the company itself. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing. Large companies who do business this way have their process down to a nearly exact science. If you follow the recipe, you're virtually assured of business success. That's why it's so hard, and expensive, to land one of these franchises.

The kind of franchise I'm talking about go back to the meaning of the term franchise itself. According to Wikipedia, the term franchise generally means a right or privilege. Selling rights is exactly what my friend the serial entrepreneur is doing. Here's how it works: