New Homes Slowdown Looks Good to Remodelers

One of my mother's favorite sayings was that every cloud has a silver lining. I don't think she ever realized how true that can be in the investment game.

I was speaking to a man yesterday about some work I'm considering having done. He owns his own home remodeling business. Now that might sound a little more grand than the reality here. He's a carpenter. He owns a truck and a couple of trailers for his tools. His business employs as few as one person at a time, himself, to as many as 3 or 4 if the job is a big one.

I asked him how business was for him lately. He told me business had never been better. He's considering taking out a loan to expand his business. He thinks it's time to move away from doing the labor in the business and to become the manager of a larger operation. When I asked him why this plan, he told me business had never been better. He said demand for home remodeling work was higher than he'd ever seen it before.

It didn't take long to understand the dynamic at work here. New home sales are down 10% or more. Experts say they'll continue to fall throughout next year. New housing starts are down about 25%. And it'll get worse. Permits for future homebuilding projects are off more than 30%. My builder friend's increase in demand exists because people are staying put. They're choosing to add on to their homes and to remodel rather than move into new homes.

Every cloud has a silver lining. Storm clouds in the housing market look more like silver lined opportunities to people like my home remodeling friend.