Learning to live within our means is painful
Plenty of interesting numbers in the news yesterday.
- Economic growth at a 0.6% annual growth rate
- Consumer spending advancing by 1%
- The Fed's interest overnight interbank lending rate is now 2%
I have to ask, how can anyone not now believe we're in a recession?
Now the question becomes a matter of how long this particular downturn will last. Anyone else think we're in for more than a year of this?
This one isn't going to take care of itself overnight. It will take some time, however, for the strong to catch up to the weak.
The world economy isn't slowing down. Growth in the world economy is fueled today by emerging economies such as those of Brazil, China and India. They are the strong.
Growth of the world economy is being slowed by the weak, the economies of the US and others whose economic growth engines have slowed or stalled.
Our credit crunch here in the US could not have come at a worse time. In too many cases the homes people live in were their last hope of a solvent retirement. Now a generation of baby boomers faces the prospect of a leaner retirement than they imagined. Many will need to simply keep on working.
And they'll work for lower wages. In the boom economies workers are content making far less than workers here. Global competition for jobs is forcing their wages up to be sure; but the downward pressure on wages at home is unmistakable.
Wage earners in strong economies want wages on a level with wage earners in the weak economies. That's why wages in the US are shrinking. That's partially why prices for foreign goods are rising. The global economy is seeking a new equilibrium, a new platform from which growth can once again resume on all economic fronts.
I believe it will take a while for this grand leveling to take place. Until then we'll learn to live within our means, spending little or no more than we make.
