Duke University and CFO Magazine Business Outlook just concluded a poll of 484 US based Chief Financial Officers. They reported that 30% of the CFO's polled had become more pessimistic about the prospects for the US economy. At the other end of the scale, 26% expressed optimism.

That leaves 44% somewhere in the middle.

This is news because the 30% figure is at or near the poll's five year low water mark, set last September.

"The optimism index has sunk below the water again, to a level that is low by historical standards," John Graham, director of the survey and a finance professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, said in a statement. "With pessimists outnumbering optimists, the prospects for the U.S. economy are poor."

Well there you have it. We're doomed because [cue Richard Dawson] "The survey says...!

It's easy to feel pessimistic with gas prices as high as they are and the stock market's gyrations this week. Inflation? You bet we have it. My budget tells me we're paying more to run the household. My favorite local restaurant raised their prices across the board last week.

My message this morning: Don't lose sight of the forest. It's easy to extrapolate a few bits of data into a doomsday scenario. I don't know about your investments, but I'm still ahead by nearly 30% this year. That makes gas and grocery prices a little easier to digest. My favorite restaurant is still a bargain despite the higher prices.

And those pessimistic CFO's, they tend to switch around a lot. Only three months ago the same poll found that 35% had become more optimistic. That poll was a high water mark for optimism. What did professor survey director John Graham have to say about it?

...the prospects for the U.S. economy are improving,

Personally, I think prospects for investors are improving. I still have money on the sidelines waiting for the right opportunities. This correction isn't hitting all sectors equally, and that's going to create some opportunities to rebalance portfolios.

The latest Duke University survey