I love a good stock picking system. The idea of using a computer and the Internet to screen through all available investment choices and net out the best ones for my investment dollar... It's appealing, isn't it?

Think about it for a minute. Every once in a while you fire up your laptop, click the mouse a few times and with no more effort than that you have a list of market beating stocks to invest in for the next few months. Click over to your online brokerage account, and after a few minutes of heavy clicking your work is done. Time to hit the golf course until your next round of trades in a few months' time.

Could there ever be such a system?

OK, everyone got their iPhone now?

Based on all the talk about Apple and AT&T and the iPhone this weekend, it seems like it's only a matter of time before everyone has one. That is, everyone who can afford the $500 or $600 price tag.

Me? No thanks. I have experienced AT&T's network. I'll wait until their exclusive expires and it's available on a faster network. Then again, do I really want to watch YouTube videos on my phone? Oh, but wait, wasn't I writing an article about investing...?

There is certainly no denying Apple's stock has been on a tear recently. I was at a dinner party at the very moment the iPhone went on sale, so naturally both Apple and the iPhone were hot topics in the room. Many who knew me well at the part assumed I'd been an AAPL investor. If only our foresight was as good as our hindsight. No, I have not been a participant in the appreciating price of Apple stock in recent years.

I read a lot about investments and investing. The word "return" has to rank among the top among terms I most frequently read. And believe it or not, when it comes to investment terms, the word "return" is among the most frequently misunderstood. Why? Because it's also among the most frequently abused.

Probably the single most important performance concept new investors need to get a handle on is investment return. Simply put, investment return the change in value of an asset over a given period of time.

It should be an interesting day today in the markets.

The Fed updates its policy statement. Be on the lookout for interpretations of what it means for interest rates. As we all know, interest rate news moves the markets like no other news. They're not expected to change the overnight bank lending rate from its current 5.25% level, but even a confirmation of that policy will be news enough to renew confidence. Whether it's the bulls' or the bears' confidence which gets bolstered remains to be seen.

The Department of Commerce will release it's 1st quarter economic growth statement later this morning They're expected to revise GDP up just a little and to report that inflation is still in check. Hard to believe inflation's in check. Anyone bought a pizza lately? Anything with milk in it? Grain products are headed up.

Did you happen to catch this media release? The Boston Consulting Group conducted a survey recently. They called Americans nationwide and asked them questions about their confidence in the real estate market and in how the recent real estate reality check has, or will affect them personally.

Here are a few of their findings:

1. 55% of Americans say their home would sell for more money now than it would have a year ago. (Last summer, 59% of American homeowners felt that way.)
2. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of homeowners say they're confident they could sell their home within the next six months at a price they think it's worth.
3. 85% of Americans believe their house will be worth more five years from now than it is today.
4. The majority - 63% - of Americans think real estate is a good or excellent investment.

... and if you ask me:

It's Friday, and the first full day of Summer '07. That combination brings only one thought to mind. Barbecue. Not that we haven't already fired up the grill, mind you.

I hosted a BBQ last weekend for family. One constant about family BBQ's around here, while the burgers are cooking the conversation always seems to turn to the price of things. Whether it's gas or a gallon of milk, prices always seem to come up.

Last weekend one of my in-laws offered up and interesting theory on the price of homes. We'd all been observing how home prices were falling in our respective neighborhoods. My position was that frenzied home buying and selling activity borne of low interest rates and predatory lending practices has driven prices to unsustainable levels. As a result, the housing market is now experiencing a correction. My father-in-law, in his very diplomatic way, didn't disagree; but he had his own view.

You'd almost have to be living under a rock not to have heard about what's going on in housing and real estate these days. If by some highly unlikely series of coincidences the news about the subprime mortgage meltdown has somehow escaped your radar, you've no-doubt noticed all the "For Sale" signs in your neighbors' yards. Have you noticed those signs have been up for a while?

In some cases realtors' signs have stood in yards for months on end. Houses aren't selling as fast as they used to, and not for nearly as much as they used to.

It looks like we're in for another tepid day in stocks today. Have the summer doldrums set in? Should we take the rest of the summer off and relax? Where is the market headed now?

If I knew do you think I'd tell you? I don't, of course; but I have my ideas. If you'd care to hear them then read on.

The case for continuing momentum
Here we are 5 solid years into a bull market. We've had rapidly expanding corporate profits in the most recent three years and they're expected to remain strong well into next year. Yet Price-Earnings ratios aren't out of line. The P/E for the S&P 500 stands at 17, fully 3 points below the 25-year average of 20. I think most stocks are still relatively inexpensive.

Investment remains strong

I was talking to a buddy of mine this weekend at a party. He was pretty proud of his recent investment decisions. Several of the stocks he'd been watching lately have been down quite a bit. He'd been a buyer in one or more of these issues as last week's sell off continued through Thursday. On Friday he saw his strategy start to pay off. By party time on Friday evening he was feeling like Donald Trump and Warren Buffet's long lost love child.

His story got me to thinking about the merits of Buy and Hold versus some other strategy of buying. For instance, what about buying when stock prices dip - a form of Market Timing, as my buddy had done?

Duke University and CFO Magazine Business Outlook just concluded a poll of 484 US based Chief Financial Officers. They reported that 30% of the CFO's polled had become more pessimistic about the prospects for the US economy. At the other end of the scale, 26% expressed optimism.

That leaves 44% somewhere in the middle.

This is news because the 30% figure is at or near the poll's five year low water mark, set last September.

"The optimism index has sunk below the water again, to a level that is low by historical standards," John Graham, director of the survey and a finance professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, said in a statement. "With pessimists outnumbering optimists, the prospects for the U.S. economy are poor."

Well there you have it. We're doomed because [cue Richard Dawson] "The survey says...!