Save for retirement, because it may be coming sooner than you think.

There is no question things are improving. Let's start with the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. On a trailing six month basis, five out of 10 components are moving in a more positive direction as of the end of June. In April it was only three. In March, two. This recession will end, and maybe soon.

But what about the job market? Have we seen any improvement there? The best I can say about the job market is that some companies I work with have stopped laying people off. Many more have at least slowed the rates at which they are letting people go. Few, if any, are hiring; even to replace employees who leave on their own.

The job market, in my opinion, will be looked upon historically as the single most important factor impeding growth for this year and next. What concerns me most about this is the dampening effect it will have on the above-mentioned recovery. And the longer it takes to recover, the longer it will be until employment begins to rebound.

Things are starting to look up. Everywhere I turn I see signs of life. Mind you I wanted to write "strength" there, but for now signs of life will have to do. Just the same, we're back from the brink. It was touch and go there for a while but it looks like the patient will pull through.

Ah, but what kind of life will the patient have after such a close call?

It happens every day to someone, actually to a whole bunch of someones. But it might only happen once in any one particular individual's lifetime. Today is one of those days for a very good friend of mine.

My friend happens to run a small chain of automobile repair shops. For years and years one of his chief complaints has been the impossibility of competing with the auto dealers for repair work. Despite investing heavily in all the latest computer diagnostic technology and hiring the best mechanics trained by the auto makers themselves, customers have been hard to get. The perception is that his service can't be as good as that which the dealers offer.

Well today his service is not only as good (better, in all probability) as that which the dealers offer, it's also available. As the list of who stays and who goes among auto dealerships becomes known it will become clear that many customers have fewer choices for where to have their cars serviced. As they search for and eventually find the highest quality and most reputable service providers my friend's business will prosper.

I told him this is his once in a lifetime opportunity.

Are you scratching your head trying to figure out where this market is headed? Or maybe better put, why it's headed up now, when all indications are it should be bouncing along going nowhere or trending down?

Me too, but I have a theory for why it's headed the other way. I can't help but wonder if the fuel behind this rally is the lack of fuel for another crisis.

Can you think of any classes of investment that could be taken behind the woodshed? That's what happened in 1987, with stocks in general. It happened again in 2000 with internet stocks. This one was precipitated from real estate and debt speculation. What's left?

Could all this be happening simply because there are no other misbehaving investment classes? (At least none that we know of.) Maybe so. If true, then it's safe to say confidence in the system, in the economy in general, and the economy's ability to recover from a strong shock in particular is building.

But it won't build forever, not all by itself. The real question therefore becomes: Will these gains prove sustainable? Will the up trend last long enough for some glimmer of hope of recovery to materialize?

Four conversations so far today. The phone rings, chatter in email, instant messages...

We're off the bottom. The market's turning around. Time to buy. Everyone checking with everyone else to see if we're all thinking the same way. We're not.

Too good to be true? It is. This thing will turn around when nobody's interested in picking up the phone to chat about a possible market bottom. When nobody cares, it's time to invest again. Until then it's all a feint.

Looking back on my careers, all the companies I've worked for and all the great benefits I've earned, I have few regrets. The single one thing I do, however, wish I'd done differently is to have been a more aggressive seller in the stocks of the companies I have worked for.

It's too easy to accumulate stock in your own company. Many companies offer some kind of employee stock purchase plan. Some award stock to employees. Stock options are part of many companies' benefits packages. Does your company have a 401(k) plan? Chances are one of the first investment choices in your company's 401(k) plan is company stock.

Employees nearly always get an employee discount on their company's stock. Who can pass up the chance to buy an asset with appreciation potential at below market price?

I'm always on the prowl for investment ideas. Hardly a day goes by that I don't run across something new and interesting that might be a new trend or idea that will turn into a real money maker. That's probably Peter Lynch's influence. I read his book oh so many years ago and it stuck with me.

Are you a seller or a buyer these days?

With a market drop like yesterdays and the sickening erosion in prices we've been experiencing of late it's hard to imagine many are happy with stocks. Top it off with the hard reality that the dollars you have to invest are worth less now - by about 50% - than they were last year and it sort of makes you want to find a hole to crawl into.

The news is all bad and shows no signs of improvement. This pesky credit crunch brought on by the housing debacle continues to roil the financial industry. Prices are headed up. It costs double just to get to the grocery store and back. Floods in the midwest are sure to put even more upward pressure on food prices. To make matters worse, the dollar's value is miniscule so your savings valued in dollar terms are worth less in real terms.

Invest? Me? Now? You have to be kidding!

This morning I received an email informing me of upcoming changes to my 401(k) plan:

This message is intended to inform you of a change being made to [your] 401(k) Plan. ...

The Investment Review Committee recently evaluated the 401(k) Plan’s existing fund offerings and has decided to remove the [unnamed fund]. This fund has been under performing relative to its benchmark and similar funds for quite some time. ...

That was some ride we enjoyed yesterday. It was nice seeing stocks pop like that again - everything from top to bottom was nice and green on my portfolio listing.

Yesterday was the biggest up day in 5 years, so they say. The odd thing for me was that while yesterday was certainly a big day, it didn't feel like I'd had the best day in 5 years. A quick check proved my suspicions. While yesterday had been a good day for me, it wasn't the best. Not in the last 5 years anyway. I had had better days.