investing

Don't go overboard with your company's stock


Looking back on my careers, all the companies I've worked for and all the great benefits I've earned, I have few regrets. The single one thing I do, however, wish I'd done differently is to have been a more aggressive seller in the stocks of the companies I have worked for.

It's too easy to accumulate stock in your own company. Many companies offer some kind of employee stock purchase plan. Some award stock to employees. Stock options are part of many companies' benefits packages. Does your company have a 401(k) plan? Chances are one of the first investment choices in your company's 401(k) plan is company stock.

Employees nearly always get an employee discount on their company's stock. Who can pass up the chance to buy an asset with appreciation potential at below market price?

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Investment Opportunities in your Neighborhood


I'm always on the prowl for investment ideas. Hardly a day goes by that I don't run across something new and interesting that might be a new trend or idea that will turn into a real money maker. That's probably Peter Lynch's influence. I read his book oh so many years ago and it stuck with me.

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Should I stay or should I go


Are you a seller or a buyer these days?

With a market drop like yesterdays and the sickening erosion in prices we've been experiencing of late it's hard to imagine many are happy with stocks. Top it off with the hard reality that the dollars you have to invest are worth less now - by about 50% - than they were last year and it sort of makes you want to find a hole to crawl into.

The news is all bad and shows no signs of improvement. This pesky credit crunch brought on by the housing debacle continues to roil the financial industry. Prices are headed up. It costs double just to get to the grocery store and back. Floods in the midwest are sure to put even more upward pressure on food prices. To make matters worse, the dollar's value is miniscule so your savings valued in dollar terms are worth less in real terms.

Invest? Me? Now? You have to be kidding!

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Do committees make better portfolio managers?


This morning I received an email informing me of upcoming changes to my 401(k) plan:

This message is intended to inform you of a change being made to [your] 401(k) Plan. ...

The Investment Review Committee recently evaluated the 401(k) Plan’s existing fund offerings and has decided to remove the [unnamed fund]. This fund has been under performing relative to its benchmark and similar funds for quite some time. ...

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Make Up Day


That was some ride we enjoyed yesterday. It was nice seeing stocks pop like that again - everything from top to bottom was nice and green on my portfolio listing.

Yesterday was the biggest up day in 5 years, so they say. The odd thing for me was that while yesterday was certainly a big day, it didn't feel like I'd had the best day in 5 years. A quick check proved my suspicions. While yesterday had been a good day for me, it wasn't the best. Not in the last 5 years anyway. I had had better days.

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What to invest in now


Yesterday the Fed lowered the overnight funds rate another ½%, the second bold move in a little over a week. Hopefully that's just the 1-2 punch this economy needs to put us back on the growth track again.

It might even get us back into growth mode before the big stimulus package is passed. Anyone holding your breath on that one? Don't worry. It'll happen. It's an election year.

The Fed Funds Rate now stands at 3%. That's had, and will continue to have a downward effect on interest rates we can earn. Recently, 10-year Treasury note yields have been right near 3.5%. Money Market rates aren't much better, somewhere right around 4%. Take out inflation and taxes and there won't be a lot left over.

Real estate doesn't look good yet. It took years, decades even, to create the mess we're in with real estate. I don't think it'll take years to unwind it, but it won't be done soon. The news in real estate hasn't gotten bad enough yet. It'll get better a few months after it seems like it can't get any worse. That hasn't happened yet.

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And you thought things were bad last week


The markets will open in a little over an hour. Futures point to what's known as a gap down day. That is, there will be a sizable gap between where market indexes, and the stocks of which they are comprised, closed on Friday and where they will open this morning. The only real question to be answered at this point is: How low will it go.

There are over 2 million mortgages out there covering homes sheltering families who are overextended. If they can barely make payments now, what happens when their payments go up as their Adjustable Rate Mortgages ratchet up to market rates?

Even if some plan is enacted which freezes their rates, many are still in trouble. A recession invariably puts people out of work. This recession looks as if it will occur in an inflationary period. Higher prices for food and clothing and transportation will certainly put a strain on homeowners already strapped trying to make mortgage payments.

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Will this Recession go Global?


Assuming you're like me and live in the United States, you're no stranger to the fact that the US investment climate hasn't been very good lately. That's a bit of an understatement, I know. Sorry, it's early in the week.

Anyone out there still trying to time the market? Buying on dips? Where are you finding additional funds to invest? Last week the NASDAQ ended a 9 day losing streak. The next day it resumed its succession of lower closes. How do you decide when you've reached the bottom of a dip?

One of these days we'll get around to making it official. It takes a committee to decide, and they have guidelines, but soon they'll say the word. Recession.

Until they do the US markets will remain ugly. They may stay that way until well after economists make the recession proclamation. Me, I'm focused on whether this recession stays at home or goes global.

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Not so Common Sense


I couldn't believe my eyes this morning when I saw this article: Buying Opportunities Are Certain to Return in the Wall Street Journal.

So much can be said in so few words. I hadn't even realized I'd missed a buying opportunity! Ah, but there is hope. The title hints there will be other buying opportunities. It practically begged me to give it a read to find out when and where.

It turns out it's an article about the author's Common Sense market timing strategy. In a nutshell, his system says that market declines of 10% are buying opportunities and that rises of 22% are sell indicators. Those aren't hard and fast trigger points. He says if you want to trade more actively you can set the trigger points closer together, say at 8% and 20%. Or if you don't want that much trading activity, just set them further apart.

The Common Sense timing strategy is intended to take advantage of market volatility. It quantifies the "buy on the dips and sell on the spikes" strategy. That's all fine and well in theory, but I have to ask how one goes about putting it into practice?

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Nice, but will it last?


Why do I feel so uneasy about yesterday's rally in the markets? I enjoyed it tremendously. I'm sure you did too. All the same, I can't help but get the feeling it's like the bull's last meal before being led out to slaughter.

I hope I'm wrong about this, but the prospects of recession seem too good. I'm concerned the Fed's interest rate cutting may have started a little too late. I'm concerned they didn't fully understand how far ranging the housing market's problems would become.

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