Interest Rate Shock
One thing I really enjoy about writing my own investment blog is that I get to put my own wild ideas out there for anyone and everyone to see. I woke up with an off-the-wall idea this morning and thought for a moment this one might be too crazy. But the more I thought about it the more it seemed to make sense. Or at least it makes sense to me right now, half-way through my first coffee of the morning.
This ¾% interest rate cut the Fed made the other day has bothered me since I first heard the news. My first reaction was that it would do no good. Indeed the market's first reaction was just that. Sorry, that won't quite do it. My later reaction was that a ¾ point had to have some effect. Surely enough, the markets seemed to have the same idea. We saw a rebound.
That led me back to the other aspect of my original thinking, that an interest rate cut that large would surely fuel inflation fires. This is the trouble spot for me. I suppose my concern about it spurred my mind to mull it over during sleepy time, because the solution presented itself this morning just as the alarm went off.
I think this ¾% rate cut is only a temporary measure. Depending on what happens in the credit markets in the near term, we may even see another cut. But I think once the credit market stabilizes and consumer fears are quelled we'll start seeing regular and possibly aggressive interest rate increases.
If credit eases the economy responds to this interest rate shock, all eyes will immediately turn to inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates are the Fed's cure for the economic headache known as inflation. But right now inflation is the secondary problem facing the economy.
I think we're seeing the Fed administer an interest rate shock treatment.