Corn's a sure bet

ears to ethanolCorn's a booming commodity these days. Look for lots of stories about corn production as spring turns to summer and the near record corn crop starts to sprout.

The government's gone corn crazy. Why? Ethanol. It's added to gasoline. It's a home grown alternative to foreign oil.

Well, that and there's an election coming up next year and it's never too early to stake your position in front of major blocks of voting power. Coming out in favor of corn production puts you at the intersection of some pretty powerful interests:

  • It's a patriotic home-grown way to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. Everyone who drives a car will cheer the pro-corn politician.
  • The farm sector stands to see increased profits from not only increased prices per bushel of corn but also from increased grants and subsidies.
  • It's a play on hope for a better future. One without war. It's no stretch for a silver-tongued politician to draw the line from home-grown fuel to here.

So be on the lookout for lots of corny stories over the summer and on into next year's election.

As an investor you should also be on the lookout for how this major shift in agricultural production will affect your portfolio. Who will benefit? Big companies in the farm supply business such as those who supply the equipment needed to raise and harvest corn. And how about chemical companies who provide fertilizers, pesticides and weed control?

At the other end of the spectrum watch out for companies whose production depends on cotton and soybeans. As agricultural production shifts away from these commodities they will see raw material prices on the rise. Will they be able to shift the higher costs of material to their customers? Only time will tell.

And here's the real question we should all be asking: When it's all said and done will the average consumer save enough at the pump to offset the increased prices everywhere else?

It's a sure bet you won't hear the answer to that question in any of the campaign speeches delivered between now and next November.